Using the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) telescope, researchers from the University of Maryland led a study to survey the Taurid swarm, a group of space debris associated with the comet Encke. These meteor showers, visible in October and November, have long intrigued astronomers due to their potential for hiding dangerous asteroids. However, the study, presented at the American Astronomical Society's Division for Planetary Sciences meeting on October 7, 2024, eases these concerns.

"We took advantage of a rare opportunity when this swarm of asteroids passed closer to Earth, allowing us to more efficiently search for objects that could pose a threat to our planet," explained Quanzhi Ye, the project's lead and assistant research scientist in UMD's Department of Astronomy. "Our findings suggest that the risk of being hit by a large asteroid in the Taurid swarm is much lower than we believed, which is great news for planetary defense."

Previously, researchers suspected the Taurid swarm contained numerous kilometer-sized asteroids, possibly originating from an object as large as 100 kilometers across. Such large objects could cause significant damage if they impacted Earth. However, the study indicates that there may only be between nine and 14 large asteroids in the swarm, and the original parent object was likely around 10 kilometers in diameter.

"Fortunately, we found that it's likely there may only be a handful of asteroids-perhaps only nine to 14 of them-that fit this large size class in the swarm," Ye said. "Judging from our findings, the parent object that originally created the swarm was probably closer to 10 kilometers in diameter rather than a massive 100-kilometer object. While we still need to be vigilant about asteroid impacts, we can probably sleep better knowing these results."

Ye also highlighted the importance of studying the Taurid swarm to gain insight into planetary evolution. The swarm is linked to comet Encke, known for its short 3.3-year orbital period and its tendency to break apart. Understanding this fragmentation process offers important clues about how comets and asteroids form and evolve.

"Studying the Taurid swarm helps us understand how small celestial bodies like comets and asteroids form and break apart over time," Ye said. "Our research has implications not just for asteroid detection and planetary defense, but also for our broader understanding of solar system objects."

Despite the reassuring findings, the team emphasized the need for continued vigilance and more advanced asteroid detection technologies. The ZTF telescope will be instrumental in future observations when the Taurid swarm passes near Earth again in 2025 and 2026.

"We have opportunities in 2025 and 2026 to further refine our results," Ye said. "As a result, we're excited to continue this important work."

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