New Method to Accurately Predict Solar Storms to Protect Earth's Technology

Written by Copernical Team Sunday, 21 July 2024 22:14

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London, UK (SPX) Jul 21, 2024

Space storms could soon be forecasted with greater accuracy thanks to significant advancements in predicting when a violent solar eruption may impact Earth. Scientists have developed a method to determine the exact speed of a coronal mass ejection (CME) and predict its impact on Earth before it fully erupts from the Sun. CMEs, which are bursts of gas and magnetic fields from the solar atmo

New Method to Accurately Predict Solar Storms to Protect Earth's Technology
by Sophie Jenkins
London, UK (SPX) Jul 22, 2024

Space storms could soon be forecasted with greater accuracy thanks to significant advancements in predicting when a violent solar eruption may impact Earth. Scientists have developed a method to determine the exact speed of a coronal mass ejection (CME) and predict its impact on Earth before it fully erupts from the Sun.

CMEs, which are bursts of gas and magnetic fields from the solar atmosphere, can cause geomagnetic storms that disrupt technology both in Earth's orbit and on its surface. This improvement in forecasting is crucial for protecting vital infrastructure, according to researchers at Aberystwyth University. These findings will be presented at the Royal Astronomical Society's National Astronomy Meeting in Hull.

The discovery was made by studying 'Active Regions' on the Sun, which have strong magnetic fields where CMEs originate. Researchers monitored these regions before, during, and after eruptions, focusing on the "critical height" at which the magnetic field becomes unstable and can cause a CME.

"By measuring how the strength of the magnetic field decreases with height, we can determine this critical height," said lead researcher Harshita Gandhi, a solar physicist at Aberystwyth University. "This data can then be used along with a geometric model to track the true speed of CMEs in three dimensions, which is essential for precise predictions."

She added, "Our findings reveal a strong relationship between the critical height at CME onset and the true CME speed. This insight allows us to predict the CME's speed and, consequently, its arrival time on Earth, even before the CME has fully erupted."

When CMEs hit Earth, they can trigger geomagnetic storms capable of producing stunning aurorae, known as the Northern Lights in the northern hemisphere. However, these storms also pose risks to vital systems such as satellites, power grids, and communication networks, underscoring the importance of accurate CME predictions.

Accurate speed predictions enable better estimates of when a CME will reach Earth, providing crucial advance warnings. "Understanding and using the critical height in our forecasts improves our ability to warn about incoming CMEs, helping to protect the technology that our modern lives depend on," Gandhi said.

"Our research not only enhances our understanding of the Sun's explosive behaviour but also significantly improves our ability to forecast space weather events. This means better preparation and protection for the technological systems we rely on every day."