NASA: 1.6% chance newly discovered asteroid will impact Earth in 2032

Written by Copernical Team Sunday, 16 February 2025 05:25

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Washington DC (UPI) Feb 15, 2025

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has declared a 1.6% chance that a large asteroid would strike the Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. Scientists at NASA and the European Space Agency are among those closely watching the asteroid that measures between 130 and 300 feet in diameter and whose trajectory gives it a slight chance of impacting Earth in late 2032, the ESA reported Monday. "An aster

NASA: 1.6% chance newly discovered asteroid will impact Earth in 2032
by Mike Heuer
Washington DC (UPI) Feb 15, 2025

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has declared a 1.6% chance that a large asteroid would strike the Earth on Dec. 22, 2032.

Scientists at NASA and the European Space Agency are among those closely watching the asteroid that measures between 130 and 300 feet in diameter and whose trajectory gives it a slight chance of impacting Earth in late 2032, the ESA reported Monday.

"An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average ever few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region," the ESA said in a news release on Jan. 29.

"As a result, the object rose to the top of the ESA's asteroid risk list," the ESA said. "Since early January, astronomers have been carrying out priority follow-up observations using telescopes around the world and using the new data to improve our understanding of the asteroid's size and trajectory."

Scientists have named the asteroid "2024 YR4," which observers in Rio Hurtado, Chile, first spotted in December using advanced telescopes.

The scientists who first glimpsed the asteroid in January gave it a 1.2% chance of impacting the Earth but raised the risk level to 2.3% this month, Sky News reported.

NASA scientists using the James Webb Space Telescope give the asteroid a slightly lower chance of impacting Earth, CBS News reported, but the chance of impact makes it the most significant impact threat to the Earth.

Astronomers are trying to reduce the uncertainty regarding the potential for an impact based on their current understanding of the asteroid's orbit.

The asteroid first was sighted on Dec. 27 after triggering collision warnings and will disappear from view over the next few months until becoming visible again in 2028.

The asteroid follows an elongated orbit around the Sun and currently is moving away from Earth in a nearly straight line.

Scientists are hoping to rule out any chance of the asteroid impacting Earth in 2032 before it disappears from view.

In September 2022, NASA successfully crashed a vending machine-sized spacecraft into the asteroid Dimorphos while testing ways to change its course if an Earth-threatening asteroid, such as 2024 YR4, is discovered.