Earth orbit is growing more congested, with over 11,000 active satellites and more on the way, plus more than 1.2 million debris fragments larger than 1 cm. This rising population makes collision risks a daily operational challenge. ESA is developing automation to help satellite operators respond faster and more effectively.
Central to this is the Collision Risk Estimation and Automated Mi by Erica Marchand
Paris, France (SPX) Aug 13, 2025
Earth orbit is growing more congested, with over 11,000 active satellites and more on the way, plus more than 1.2 million debris fragments larger than 1 cm. This rising population makes collision risks a daily operational challenge. ESA is developing automation to help satellite operators respond faster and more effectively.
Central to this is the Collision Risk Estimation and Automated Mitigation (CREAM) project, part of ESA's Space Safety Programme. CREAM aims to cut operator workload, reduce false alerts, speed up avoidance measures and improve overall mission safety.
Launched in 2020, CREAM has entered a key stage involving ground system tests and in-orbit demonstration planning. Its vision is to automate much of the manual work in collision avoidance, from assessing conjunctions to planning manoeuvres, supporting decision-making and coordinating with other operators.
The system is also being designed to connect a wide range of stakeholders, including operators, space situational awareness providers, regulators and observers. This network approach could streamline decisions, particularly in cases involving two active satellites rather than debris.
In addition, CREAM could facilitate negotiations between operators with minimal human intervention. If parties disagree on a proposed solution, the system could escalate the case to mediation, ensuring transparent and fair outcomes.
Currently, prototype components developed by GMV and Guardtime are being integrated into a single platform by GMV. While still ground-based, the system can already generate alerts, propose actionable avoidance manoeuvres and support coordination between stakeholders.
The next phase will see pilot operations expanded with enhanced decision-making tools, alongside preparations for in-orbit trials. These include embedding the system as a digital payload on other missions and launching a dedicated CREAM demonstration mission.
Beyond collision prevention, CREAM could help shape future space traffic management. By providing a standardised toolset for compliance and monitoring, it may bridge the gap between regulatory ambition and technical capability, allowing evolving rules to be implemented in practice.
Its adaptability will enable non-technical users to define and update standards within the system, ensuring CREAM remains relevant as norms and technologies evolve.
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