Seismology has long established that earthquakes result from the movement of tectonic plates, which accumulate strain energy until it is released as seismic activity. However, predicting earthquakes with enough accuracy to enable timely evacuations remains a significant challenge. Events like the 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, which triggered a devastating tsunami and led to the Fukushima by Riko Seibo
Tokyo, Japan (SPX) Mar 11, 2025
Seismology has long established that earthquakes result from the movement of tectonic plates, which accumulate strain energy until it is released as seismic activity. However, predicting earthquakes with enough accuracy to enable timely evacuations remains a significant challenge. Events like the 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, which triggered a devastating tsunami and led to the Fukushima nuclear disaster, highlight the urgency of improving forecasting methods.
Recent studies have investigated possible connections between seismic activity and external forces such as tidal effects from the Moon or electromagnetic influences from the Sun. Researchers from the University of Tsukuba and the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology in Japan have now expanded this exploration to include the role of Earth's climate, particularly how solar heat influences seismic behavior. Their findings, published in Chaos by AIP Publishing, build upon a previous study that linked sunspot activity with earthquake occurrence.
"Solar heat drives atmospheric temperature changes, which in turn can affect things like rock properties and underground water movement," explained study author Matheus Henrique Junqueira Saldanha. "These fluctuations can make rocks more brittle and susceptible to fracturing, while variations in rainfall and snowmelt can alter the pressure on tectonic boundaries. Though these factors may not be the primary cause of earthquakes, they could contribute to forecasting efforts."
By applying mathematical and computational analysis to earthquake records alongside solar activity data and Earth surface temperatures, the researchers observed that incorporating temperature variations into their models improved forecast accuracy-particularly for shallow earthquakes.
"That makes sense, since heat and water primarily impact the upper layers of Earth's crust," Junqueira Saldanha noted.
Their study suggests that solar heat transfer to Earth's surface plays a role in seismic activity, even if its influence is minor. Integrating solar activity predictions with advanced Earth temperature models may enhance earthquake forecasting.
"It's an exciting direction, and we hope our study sheds some light on the bigger picture of what triggers earthquakes," Junqueira Saldanha concluded.
Research Report:The role of solar heat in earthquake activity featured
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